The currency correction since early 2012 looks like it could be stalling out and Wednesday’s price action could shed further light on the matter…

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Gold, silver and copper prices are looking to the ISM gauge of US manufacturing activity for direction. Crude oil has decoupled amid uncertainty about Iran.

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The new trading month was expected to bring forth a new trend, one in favor of safe havens such as the U.S. Dollar. Instead, it appears the January Effect is in play, with February trading taking a cue and bidding the Australian and New Zealand Dollars higher.

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The US Dollar has dropped in 10 out of the past 13 sessions. By anyone’s standard that is a clear bear trend. Yet, we are still finding a lack of conviction in risk appetite trends.

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While we continue to classify the gains in currencies against the US Dollar as corrective, there is still a room for a little more upside in these markets before the US Dollar returns…

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The US Dollar finds itself torn between lingering Eurozone debt crisis fears and the possibility of additional QE3 clues as Ben Bernanke testifies in Congress.

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Crude oil and metals prices are focused on testimony from Ben Bernanke, with gains hinting on the Chairman’s ability to stoke QE3 expectations.

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Higher yielding currencies edged slightly higher ahead of trading in New York, though the Euro was among the worst performers of the day. With the EUR/USD getting rejected at 1.3200 again, is a major top being carved out ahead of a U.S. Dollar rally?

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Overall, price action this week has been uneventful for the Euro, with the market confined to a round of consolidation. But this could soon come to an end with today’s event risk…

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Crude oil, copper and precious metals prices are likely to rise if a slowdown in US job creation stokes expectations of the near-term arrival of new Fed stimulus.

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The better-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report propped up the U.S. dollar on Friday, and the reserve currency may continue to recoup the losses from the previous month as the development dampens the prospects for additional monetary support.

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The U.S. Dollar took a hit following the January jobs report data, which showed the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent. However, the Greenback’s weakness is a short-term phenomenon, as the print dampens the need for more easing by the Federal Reserve.

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Positive developments coming out of the world economy propped up market sentiment on Tuesday, but the rise in risk appetite appears to be tapering off as the heightening risk for contagion continues to drag on investor confidence.

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The combination of resilient Chinese growth, better than expected sentiment figures out of Germany, and a fresh rumor of another massive liquidity injection by the European Central Bank have lifted higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets thus far on Tuesday.

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The European Currencies continued their rebound, with the Swiss Franc turning positive on the year against the U.S. Dollar. However, this has placed incredible pressure on the Swiss National Bank’s currency peg, with market participants testing the 1.2000 floor on the EUR/CHF.

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Unemployment in Britain is expected to increase for the tenth consecutive month in November, and a rise in U.K. Jobless Claims could spark a bearish reaction in the British Pound as the development heightens the scope for additional monetary support.
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Although the Euro has found some bids over the past few sessions, the market is still locked in an intense downtrend and will need to break 1.2880 at a minimum to alleviate immediate downside pressures …

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The European currencies led the rally against the safe havens on Wednesday as another rumor surrounding International Monetary Fund funding emerged. Elsewhere, it appears the Greek private sector involvement saga is coming to a close.

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Increased efforts to address the sovereign debt crisis propped up market sentiment on Wednesday, but the rise in risk appetite appears to be tapering off as the fundamental outlook for the global economy deteriorates.

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Consumer prices in the world’s largest economy as expected to grow at a slower pace in December, and easing price pressures may dampen the appeal of the USD as it raises the scope for another large-scale asset purchase scheme.
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After yesterday’s modest rally to kick off 2012, higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets have softened against the U.S. Dollar. Elsewhere, the Swiss Franc has come under pressure amid a controversy at the Swiss National Bank.

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Although we have been talking about the drop in the EUR/AUD cross rate for some time, we contend that a major base is on the verge of forming which could open an exciting long opportunity…

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Crude oil may deviate from larger risk appetite trends amid mounting tension between the US and Iran. Gold looks to the US Dollar for direction cues.

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U.S. job growth is expected to gather pace in December and the ongoing improvement in the labor market could prop up the dollar as the development dampens the scope for another round of quantitative easing.
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Market participants moved away from the U.S. dollar ahead following the rise in risk sentiment, but we may see the reserve currency regain its footing during the North American trade as the fundamental outlook for the world’s largest economy improves.

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